British Pound Outlook Remains Bearish as Growth Forecasts Weaken Further

Fundamental Outlook for British Pound: Bearish

- 3Q GDP Revised to -0.6% from -0.5%
- British Pound Tests Record Low Against Euro

The British Pound continued its move towards parity against the Euro and slid lower against the U.S. Dollar ahead of the New Year, which suggests that investors remain bearish against the currency as market participants widely expect the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs even further in January. Nevertheless, financial uncertainties paired with the ongoing downturn in the housing sector is likely to stoke increased selling pressures for the currency over the near-term as the economic calendar continues to reflect a dour outlook for growth.

The lowest interest rate since 1951 highlights the extraordinary efforts taken on by the central bank, and market participants anticipate policymakers to ease policy further as they do everything possible within their authority to mitigate the downturn in the economy. A Bloomberg News survey shows that 27 of the 38 economists polled anticipate BoE Governor Mervyn King and Co. to lower the benchmark interest rate by 50bp to 1.50% at the January 8th policy meeting. Meanwhile, weakening fundamentals have certainly dragged on the British Pound throughout the second half of the year, and the event risks scheduled for the following week could weigh on the currency as growth prospects deteriorate at a rapid pace. The BoE’s housing equity withdrawals index is projected to fall to -3.3B from -2.8B in the second quarter as a result of tumbling home prices paired with tightening lending practices, while consumer credit is expected to decline to 0.6B from 0.8B in October. As credit conditions remain far from normal, private sector spending, which is one of the biggest drivers of growth, is likely to remain subdued throughout the coming months, and would only heighten the downside risks for growth going forward.

From a technical standpoint, the British Pound is expected to remain range-bound in the week ahead, and should hold major trends against its currency counterparts over the near-term. Accordingly, as investors round-trip their open positions for the year, thin markets are unlikely to impel a drastic shift in trader sentiment, and the Sterling is likely to face headwinds ahead of the event risks scheduled for the coming week.

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