Trials Open For 9 Over China Tainted Milk Scandal

9 defendants go on trial in China over tainted milk scandal amid moves to compensate victims

Nine people went on trial Monday in connection with China's tainted milk scandal, state media reported, following the announcement of steps to compensate the families of hundreds of thousands of children harmed by contaminated infant formula.
The tainted formula gave babies painful kidney stones and news of the problem sent parents around the country rushing their babies to emergency rooms for tests to see if they were affected. Chinese dairy exports such as chocolate and yogurt were also found to be tainted, triggering a slew of product recalls elsewhere in Asia and in Europe, Africa and Latin America.

At least four of the suspects on trial Monday could be given the death penalty.
Hearings were held in the northern city of Shijiazhuang, where the company at the heart of the scandal -- Sanlu Group Co. -- is headquartered, along with three other cities in surrounding Hebei province, according to state broadcaster CCTV and the Xinhua News Agency.

The first trials in the case began for six men on Friday.
All 15 on trial have been charged with producing and selling melamine. The industrial chemical was added to raw milk because -- like protein -- it is high in nitrogen and can make protein levels appear higher.
Sanlu's chairwoman and general manager, Tian Wenhua, is scheduled to go before a Shijiazhuang court Wednesday.
At least six babies died and 294,000 other children suffered kidney and urinary problems from drinking the baby formula made from the contaminated milk.

The four suspects in the Shijiazhuang trial are accused of endangering public safety and could face sentences ranging from 10 years in prison to the death penalty. It identified them as Gao Junjie, his wife Xiao Yu, Xue Jianzhong, and Zhang Yanjun.
The four are accused of having produced 200 tons of a mixture of melamine and malt dextrin, a food additive made from starch, that they marketed to milk producers, according to the reports.
Between November 2007 and August 2008, they sold 110 tons to milk producers -- including Sanlu -- for a total of 1.23 million yuan ($180,000), the reports said.
Although melamine, a common industrial chemical used to make plastics and fertilizer, is legal to produce and sell in China, CCTV said the court believed the men's actions had "greatly harmed the health and safety of the consumers, especially infants, therefore violating the criminal law of China."

It was unclear if CCTV was quoting the court. Calls to the Intermediate People's Court went unanswered.
Xinhua said the other five are charged with producing and selling poisonous food, but did not give their names or other details.
The trials come amid moves by authorities to end a national disgrace that highlighted widespread problems with food safety and corporate and governmental malfeasance.
On Saturday, China's Dairy Industry Association said 22 dairy producers would make a one-time cash payment to families of victims and establish a fund to cover medical bills for future health problems.

Lawyers -- who are seeking to bring a lawsuit against the companies involved -- say they understand most children who suffered kidney stones from the tainted milk would get 2,000 yuan ($290), while sicker children would be paid 30,000 yuan ($4,380).
Chinese courts have rejected all claims filed by the victims' families, including a lawsuit filed this month by lawyers representing 63 defendants that sought nearly 14 million yuan ($2 million) in compensation from Sanlu.
The state-owned company has been declared bankrupt according to New Zealand's Fonterra Group, which owns a 43 percent stake in Sanlu.

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British Pound Outlook Remains Bearish as Growth Forecasts Weaken Further

Fundamental Outlook for British Pound: Bearish

- 3Q GDP Revised to -0.6% from -0.5%
- British Pound Tests Record Low Against Euro

The British Pound continued its move towards parity against the Euro and slid lower against the U.S. Dollar ahead of the New Year, which suggests that investors remain bearish against the currency as market participants widely expect the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs even further in January. Nevertheless, financial uncertainties paired with the ongoing downturn in the housing sector is likely to stoke increased selling pressures for the currency over the near-term as the economic calendar continues to reflect a dour outlook for growth.

The lowest interest rate since 1951 highlights the extraordinary efforts taken on by the central bank, and market participants anticipate policymakers to ease policy further as they do everything possible within their authority to mitigate the downturn in the economy. A Bloomberg News survey shows that 27 of the 38 economists polled anticipate BoE Governor Mervyn King and Co. to lower the benchmark interest rate by 50bp to 1.50% at the January 8th policy meeting. Meanwhile, weakening fundamentals have certainly dragged on the British Pound throughout the second half of the year, and the event risks scheduled for the following week could weigh on the currency as growth prospects deteriorate at a rapid pace. The BoE’s housing equity withdrawals index is projected to fall to -3.3B from -2.8B in the second quarter as a result of tumbling home prices paired with tightening lending practices, while consumer credit is expected to decline to 0.6B from 0.8B in October. As credit conditions remain far from normal, private sector spending, which is one of the biggest drivers of growth, is likely to remain subdued throughout the coming months, and would only heighten the downside risks for growth going forward.

From a technical standpoint, the British Pound is expected to remain range-bound in the week ahead, and should hold major trends against its currency counterparts over the near-term. Accordingly, as investors round-trip their open positions for the year, thin markets are unlikely to impel a drastic shift in trader sentiment, and the Sterling is likely to face headwinds ahead of the event risks scheduled for the coming week.

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Euro Zone Current Account Deficit to Threaten Currency

Euro Zone Current Account Deficit to Threaten Currency in Coming Months (Euro Open)

The Euro Zone Current Account report headlines the economic calendar in the coming session, with all signs pointing to a sixth consecutive monthly decline in annualized trading terms. Economists forecast that 2008 will mark the first year in seven that the Euro Zone will see a trade deficit, putting downward pressure on the value of the region’s currency.

Key Overnight Developments

• New Zealand Recession Deepens as Economy Shrinks Again in Q3

• Euro, British Pound See Muted Price Action Ahead of Holiday

Critical Levels





The Euro inched higher in thin, pre-holiday trading, reclaiming a bit of the ground lost in New York hours to test above the 1.40 level. The British Pound was confined to a well-defined 40-pip range below 1.4850.

Asia Session Highlights






New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product data showed that economy shrank for the third consecutive quarter in the three months to September, dropping -0.4% to bring the annualized growth rate into negative territory for the first time in 10 years (-0.1%). The current downturn is clearly deepening: The jobless rate has soared to the highest in 5 years and retail sales activity has fallen to the lowest since 1998. Still, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard has said that he sees the economy resuming growth in the second half of 2009 and backed off explicit promises of further rate cuts. The new government of Prime Minister John Key is not so optimistic, saying last week that expansion may not resume until 2010. Key had pledged to cut taxes by NZ$4.4 billion ahead of November’s election. Traders are pricing a 50-75 basis point cut when the RBNZ announces policy in January.

Euro Session: What to Expect

The Euro Zone Current Account may see a bit of improvement in October: the trade balance portion of the report released last week swung back into positive territory in the same period after three consecutive monthly deficits. Importantly, the improvement in the headline figure was driven by a -4.6% drop in imports rather than vibrant overseas shipments. Indeed, exports fell -2.5%. The month-to-month volatility in trade figures makes looking an annualized numbers much more telling: despite the monthly improvement, trading terms deteriorated a hefty -78% in October from a year before. In fact, this marked the sixth consecutive month that the currency bloc’s trade position has registered large, double-digit drops from the same time in 2007. Indeed, economists forecast that 2008 will mark the first year in seven that the Euro Zone will see a trade deficit. Expectations extend to call for another deficit in 2009. This implies long-term downward pressure on the exchange rate: the deficit causes a net outflow of Euros which invariably floods the market with currency and drives down its value.

The UK Current Account is expected to show a quarterly deficit of -11.9 billion pounds in the three months through September, a 25% improvement from a year before. The 12-month rolling change in UK trading terms has shown improvement since the beginning of last year. The change reflects the a weakening British Pound: the sterling lost an average of 7.28% and 25.8% in 2007 and thus far in 2008, respectively. The final revision of the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product reading is expected to confirm the economy shrank -0.5% in the three months to September. Economists expect the economy to contract by 1.0% in the fourth quarter to confirm the UK is in recession.

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A look at Economic Developments Around The World

A look at economic developments, activity in stock markets around the world Monday

A look at economic developments and stock-market activity around the world Monday:

TOKYO -- Toyota Motor Corp. slashed its earnings forecast, projecting that it would report its first annual operating loss for the fiscal year through March -- its first such loss since it began reporting results in 1941. Battered by falling demand from consumers around the world and a surging yen, Toyota and other Japanese automakers have been reducing earnings outlooks and cutting workers. Toyota forecast an operating loss of 150 billion yen ($1.66 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2009. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance said Japanese exports plunged a record 26.7 percent in November, highlighting the drop in global consumer demand for Japanese products. Economists warned that exports such as Toyota's cars -- a mainstay of the world's second-largest economy -- would tumble further with no recovery in sight for the global economy. Even exports to the rest of Asia are falling sharply. Despite the bad news, Tokyo bucked the downward trend in Asia, Its Nikkei 225 stock average rose 135.26 points, or 1.6 percent, to 8,723.78.

LONDON -- Two rate-setting members of the Bank of England indicated they favor deeper rate cuts to help the economy through the looming recession, causing a further fall in the value of the pound. The Bank of England's deputy head, John Gieve, who also sits on the bank's rate-setting committee, said the bank had been surprised by the severity of the financial crisis. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closed down 37.77 points, or 0.9 percent, at 4,249.16.

BERLIN -- German consumers' economic expectations for January stabilized at very low levels -- despite the economy falling into recession -- as slower inflation offset growing fears of unemployment, a survey showed Monday. The GfK research group said its forward-looking consumer climate index for January stood at 2.1 points -- flat against a revised 2.1 points in December. The part of the index measuring Germans' income expectations, however, dropped markedly after four consecutive increases -- down 8.5 points to minus 15.4. The DAX index ended down 57.68 points, or 1.2 percent, at 4,639.02.

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- The EU statistics agency, Eurostat, said that industrial orders data for the euro-zone plunged by a monthly 4.7 percent in October for a 15.1 percent year-on-year decline. Most countries posted declines, including industrial heavyweights Germany and France.

DUBLIN, Ireland -- Ireland's finance minister revealed plans for a euro5.5 billion ($7.7 billion) bailout of three leading banks -- made necessary by what he called reckless property lending during Ireland's long Celtic Tiger boom. Brian Lenihan said all three banks -- Allied Irish, Bank of Ireland and Anglo-Irish -- needed to boost their cash reserves to counter international doubts about their ability to withstand Ireland's deepening recession. Anglo-Irish Bank Corp., a specialist lender heavily exposed to the collapse of Ireland's property and construction markets, would fall under government control. Traders on the Irish Stock Exchange embraced state support for Ireland's dominant two banks, but kept questioning whether Anglo-Irish could survive.

BEIJING -- China cut interest rates for the fifth time in four months in a new effort to revive economic growth amid government anxiety about spreading job losses and worker protests. The benchmark one-year lending rate will fall by 0.27 percentage point to 2.25 percent, effective Tuesday, the central bank said. That came just four weeks after China's biggest rate cut in 11 years and left the benchmark rate at its lowest level since February 2004. Beijing is trying to prod consumers and businesses to spend in an effort to support a massive government stimulus package intended to rev up domestic economic activity and shield China from a global downturn. Manufacturing, investment and other key drivers of the economy are still weakening despite earlier rate cuts. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.5 percent, or 30.71 points, to 1,987.76. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index lost 505.12 points, or 3.3 percent, to finish at 14,622.39, its lowest close in more than two weeks. Since hitting its November lows, the benchmark had bounced back more than 20 percent as of Friday.

PARIS -- Michelin SCA's recent production cuts, made to adjust to sharply falling demand amid the global economic crisis, will cost euro150 million ($209 million) in the fourth quarter, the French tire maker said. Demand for tires in Europe, North America, Asia and South America fell in November as car makers slashed production in the face of a steep drop in sales. The CAC-40 fell 74.54 points, or 2.3 percent, to 3,151.36.

SEOUL, South Korea -- South Korea plans to slash 13 percent of jobs at public corporations over the next three to four years to improve efficiency and cut costs, the government. A total of 19,000 positions at South Korea's 69 public corporations will be cut over three to four years. Meanwhile, Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp., which dominate the South Korean car industry, cut their joint 2008 sales forecast by 12.5 percent and said they would freeze pay for managers amid slumping vehicle demand. Separately, Ssangyong Motor Co., South Korea's smallest automaker, said it may not be able to meet its December payroll on time. South Korea's Kospi dipped 0.1 percent. Singapore, Australia and mainland China benchmarks were each down over 1.5 percent.

MOSCOW -- The ruble dropped further as the Central Bank again eased its support of the Russian currency, under constant pressure from plunging oil prices and economic woes. The ruble lost 1.6 percent on the main foreign currency exchange and closed at 33.5 rubles against the bank's euro-dollar basket at the MICEX. The depreciation was the third in just four days, and the ninth since Nov. 11 when the Central Bank began backing off support of the ailing ruble. The Kremlin is anxious to avoid a repeat of the 1998 financial crisis when Russians rushed to withdraw their savings as the ruble plummeted. It has stuck to the line that it will not allow any dramatic falls in the ruble. Many economists, however, have called for a one-off full devaluation to stop the sharp drain on the country's hard currency reserves and capital outflow.

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil -- Brazil's Central Bank said economic growth this year should be faster than expected -- adjusting its estimate of GDP growth to 5.6 percent from 5 percent. Growth for next year is forecast at 3.2 percent. The central bank also said Monday that inflation should reach 6.2 percent this year, but only 4.7 in 2009, due partly to recently increased interest raises. The Ibovespa index was down 3.5 percent to 37,774 in midday trading.

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- Saudi Arabia is projected to record a budget deficit of 65 billion riyals ($17.3 billion) in fiscal 2009, its first in over five years, as the Arab economic powerhouse ratchets up efforts to support domestic growth in the face of plummeting oil prices and a global economic meltdown. In a new budget, the Ministry of Finance said government expenditures were budgeted at 475 billion riyals for fiscal 2009, and total revenues were estimated at 410 billion riyals. That contrasted sharply with fiscal 2008 projections, with the ministry forecasting 1.1 trillion riyals in revenue for that year and expenditures hitting 510 billion riyals. The country was expected to record a surplus of 590 billion riyals this year, it said.

KIEV, Ukraine -- Thousands of car drivers in the Ukrainian capital angrily blew their horns for several minutes, protesting what they call incompetent and corrupt government policies that led to a devastating financial crisis. The Ukrainian currency has lost some 40 percent of its value since September as a fall in the export of steel, the heart of the economy, led to a shortage of foreign currency. That was coupled with a loss of confidence in the hryvna and the banking system. Monday's protests, branded "Enough" and organized mainly through the Internet, were a sign of growing anger and opposition to the government which experts say could boil over into mass protests in the coming months.

BOGOTA, Colombia -- Colombia's national statistics agency says the pace of growth is slowing, with third quarter GDP growth counted at 3.1 percent above the same period a year earlier. The report shows a mere 0.7 percent rise in gross domestic product between the second and third quarters of the year. Quarterly year to year growth rates have slipped from a torrid 8.5 percent in the first quarter of 2007. The rate was down to 4.5 in the first quarter of 2008 and to 3.8 percent in the second quarter. The government says it expects overall growth of 4 percent this year, down from 8 percent in 2007.

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Big Winners of The Past Were Losers in 2008

Reversal of fortune: Big winners of past years were bigger losers in 2008

As 2008 ends, you may feel like the year's biggest loser is you.
If you have a job, it probably feels shaky. If you have a 401(k), you can't bear to open the statements. If you bought a house in the last five years, you feel like a sucker (unless you were the winning bidder at a foreclosure auction).
It's cold comfort to know that the financial crash upended everyone -- calloused Maine lobstermen, french-manicured San Diego real estate brokers, Rolex-wearing Greenwich hedge fund managers.
High diesel prices as the year began ran independent truckers off the road. Soaring summer commodity costs choked businesses from bakeries to airlines. Frozen credit markets left small business owners dialing their moms for loans.

Many of the biggest winners of the past lost their shirts in 2008.
The kings of Wall Street watched as their banks either disappeared through mergers or bankruptcy or received injections of tax dollars to stay alive. The congressmen who once hung on Alan Greenspan's every indecipherable utterance turned hostile, as the once-revered oracle was reassessed, and found to be an oaf. Investors who had trusted Bernard Madoff with $50 billion saw the money manager who had given them steady returns for decades admit it was all a Ponzi scheme.
The financial hurricane made the winners stand out even more.

Hedge fund manager John Paulson made billions by betting against the housing boom. Economist Nouriel Roubini and money manager Peter Schiff, who'd been laughed off as economic Cassandras, were proven right as their dire predictions came true, again and again. Despite conventional wisdom that the labor movement is near death, Boeing Co.'s machinists union flexed its muscle during an eight-week strike.
Some winners and losers don't bear explanation -- renters win, owners lose; retirees with old-fashioned pensions win -- for the time being -- while those with 401(k) plans lose. Florida, California and Nevada lose on home price depreciation, Michigan and Ohio lose on jobs, and nearly every state seems likely to lose tax revenue.

The year's many losers and scant winners are below, listed by group:

LOSERS: Gamblers

Rich men who made big bets used to be lionized. Not this year.
One billionaire beset by debt was Sumner Redstone, who held a fire sale, selling $233 million of his CBS Corp. and Viacom Inc. stock as he struggled to restructure $1.6 billion in debt. He also sold his majority stake in Midway Games Inc., which makes "Mortal Kombat" video games, for $100,000 -- less than one-one-hundredth of a penny per share.
Sheldon Adelson, billionaire majority owner of the Las Vegas Sands Corp., also got himself in trouble with debt. The company's expansion into overheated Macau failed to pay off and gambling revenue dropped in the recession, forcing he and his wife to come up with $475 million of their own money to pay down some of the company's $9.21 billion in long-term debt. Shareholders are still waiting for a rescue: The company's shares have lost about 95 percent of their value this year.
Some bets were personal. Aubrey McClendon, CEO of Chesapeake Energy Corp. was forced in October to sell almost 95 percent of his holdings -- representing more than a 5 percent stake in the natural gas giant -- to meet a personal margin call. His fire sale of more than $570 million worth of stock pressed share prices lower.

LOSERS: Private equity kings

Private equity champ Edward Lampert looked smart when he bought Kmart out of bankruptcy, then began selling off its real estate. Wall Street anticipated another success when he scooped up Sears. It hasn't turned out that way. While Lampert is great at selling off a company's pieces, he's less great at the fundamentals of retail: selling more lawnmowers, bath towels and sweaters. Sears Holdings Corp. lost $146 million in the most recent quarter, the stock is down about 60 percent for the year and the company is still searching for a chief executive, nearly a year after its last CEO resigned.
Likewise, real estate mogul Sam Zell burdened Tribune Co. with $13 billion in debt when he bought the company last year, leading it to file for bankruptcy in December. While he blamed the economy, employees and observers blamed him.
"We knew he was going to take this business under," said Philip Gregory, a lawyer for a Los Angeles Times auto critic and five former newsroom employees who sued Tribune in September over Zell's takeover. "Of course he's blaming the market, but it's really the $13 billion in debt that he brought into the business."

LOSERS: Pollyannas

Jerry Yang, Yahoo Inc.'s chief executive, kept waiting for Microsoft Corp. to offer a better price than $47.5 billion for Yahoo. It never happened. Instead, Yahoo's stock sagged near five-year lows, making his refusal look less like an effort to get the best price for shareholders and more like excessive optimism. Yang said in November that he'd step down and Yahoo, in December, overhauled its severance plan in a move that would save a buyer somewhere between $462 million and $2.1 billion.
Former Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, also a vice chairman of Swiss Bank UBS, made headlines -- and enemies -- in July, when he said the U.S. was in "a mental recession."
"We may have a recession; we haven't had one yet," said Gramm, who was, at the time, an economic adviser to presidential candidate John McCain. "We have sort of become a nation of whiners."

LOSERS: U.S. automakers

The CEOs of the Detroit Three went to Washington to beg for billions in bailout money. But it wasn't on their hands and knees.
As new car sales cratered, the group flew private jets to D.C. in November to ask for billions in bailout money. Worse, they came without a plan.
After they drove to Washington for a repeat visit, the Senate quashed a bailout, but the Bush administration approved a $17.4 billion rescue loan.
"Allowing the auto companies to collapse is not a responsible course of action," Bush said.

WINNERS: Cassandras

As markets plummeted, the dourest economic observers gained respect.
Nouriel Roubini, a New York University economics professor, said in 2006 that the worst recession in four decades was on its way. He predicted that mortgage defaults would spread, investment banks would no longer exist in their current form and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would tumble.
Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, has been saying for years that the economy was built on too much consumption and not enough saving. "The disease is all this debt-financed consumption," he said on a 2006 CNBC appearance. "The cure is that we stop consuming and start saving and producing again. That's a recession. Sometimes, medicine tastes bad, but you gotta swallow it."

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US Dollar Forecast to Recover Against Euro, British Pound

EURUSD – Euro Forecast to Turn Against US Dollar on Shift in Forex Sentiment

USDJPY – US Dollar May Lose Further Against the Japanese Yen

USDCHF – Forex Sentiment Accurately Forecasts Massive Swiss Franc Rally

GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Bearish Against Downtrodden US Dollar

USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Unclear Against US Dollar




















Forex Positioning in the Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD – Forecasts for the Euro/US Dollar currency pair have now shifted to the downside, as a flip in retail forex positioning signals that the recent Euro/US Dollar uptrend may reverse. Last week we cited extremely net-short “crowd” positioning as a clear sign that the Euro would rally, but the forex crowd has now capitulated and the majority of traders are now long the EUR/USD. Indeed, the SSI ratio currently stands at 1.18 as nearly 54 percent of traders are long the pair. Yesterday only 40 percent of traders were long, and these reversals most often occur at turns in price.

Forex Positioning in the US Dollar/Japanese Yen

















USDJPY – The forex trading crowd continues to buy into US Dollar/Japanese Yen declines, and such stubbornness suggests that the pair may yet fall further. That said, positioning has become far less extreme through recent trading. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are long. This stands in contrast with a ratio of 2.11 at this point last week, and the slow capitulation from the forex trading crowd tells us that we are zeroing in on a bottom. Through the very short term we may expect the US Dollar to continue falling against the Japanese Yen, but a stronger shift in sentiment would signal that a turn is likely.

Forex Positioning in the British Pound/US Dollar
















GBPUSD –Forex positioning in the British Pound/US Dollar pair has been inconsistent through recent trading, but a recent increase in GBP/USD-long positions supports the case for near-term British Pound weakness against the US Dollar. Indeed, the ratio of long to short positions in the GBP/USD currently stands at 1.48, as nearly 60 percent of traders are currently long. Given that our Speculative Sentiment Index is most often contrarian in nature, the forex crowd’s long bias gives us reason to look for a downturn in the GBP/USD through the foreseeable future.

Forex Positioning in the US Dollar/Swiss Franc


















USDCHF – Recent US Dollar/Swiss Franc price action is a testament to the effectiveness of Speculative Sentiment Index-based currency forecasts. Forex trading crowds had remained heavily net-short the USD/CHF since July, and the pair went on to mount an impressive multi-month rally. Most recently, that same crowd capitulated and actually went net-long the USD/CHF near the 1.2000 mark. The US Dollar subsequently went on to post its biggest monthly loss against the Swiss Franc in history—incredible by any standards. Looking to very short-term trading, the crowd is currently net-short the pair, with short positions outnumbering longs by 1.08 to 1. Such a flip gives us reason to look for a reversal, but a sharp drop in open interest gives us little conviction in our forecast.

Forex Positioning in the US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

















USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 50.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.9% lower than yesterday and 11.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.7% weaker than yesterday and 56.7% below its monthly average.

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